A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
